Doing my daily “silent desert island discs” challenge on Facebook got me thinking that it would be better with sound. There are lots of folks who share great music already and I’ve noticed some have even started doing their own lists – Music and Creative Arts are sharing their “Self Isolation Discs”. I have no intention of nominating others for this – but if you like the idea then please join in – and I know that my selection will not be to everyone’s taste – but it would be good to get some feed back. Hopefully somewhere along the line I will introduce you to something you like!
George McConnell
Oh Dear – Just When I Thought Some Were Getting It!
In these days when so many are focussing on “the model” it is throwing up lots of insight into what people understand – and do not understand – about modelling and specifically models used for forecasting. Whilst much of the coverage has been OK both the media and the “experts” (not experts in modelling I should add for clarity) are often guilty of misrepresentation (to put it kindly!)
A Modeller on Modelling
My previous post was a little bit away from the norm in that it really did draw on my knowledge and experience more than it tried to expand it. I am going to do that again – because “models” are seemingly all the rage and, to be honest, I am seeing so much that is familiar from my days using (and justifying) models at work that is being reflected in the current situation.
Recognition Comes Too Late
One thing that I used to dread when I was working was someone asking me “what do you do at work then”? I suspect that I must have written about this somewhere, but the answer “I do modelling” is perhaps the most accurate and yet least informative one that I could give. Suddenly “modelling” is becoming quite the in-thing.
Facts Not Fear
This is a first for this blog – a version of a “re-tweet”. The following open letter was written by an Infectious Diseases Specialist in response to the relatively uninformed response by many to the Covid-19 pandemic. I have republished it here because it is bang on topic of “feeding my ignorance” and it reinforces the sort of message I was trying to convey in my previous writing on the subject.
This Time It Wasn’t a Butterfly
Its Chaos Theory time. No – not when everything goes awry – although given the situation in the world today that could well be true(-ish). I’m talking about the mathematical version of chaos – small changes in initial conditions make huge differences in outcomes – another subject that I have talked about often. Its most ‘famous’ instantiation is perhaps Lorenz’s “Butterfly Effect” – but as the title says we cannot blame the butterfly this time – or perhaps, more correctly, it is likely that no butterfly was involved – we cannot be sure.
Every Little Thing They Do…
….is magic! The coronavirus pandemic has triggered two different posts – this being the first – which are not necessarily about the virus itself, but comment on some aspects of life that the current outbreak highlights rather well. We hear a lot these days about invisible illnesses and – whilst covid-19 is not always such, sometimes there are no symptoms and neither the person who is ill, nor their friends and relatives will have any idea that they are carrying and spreading the virus.
A Very Stable Genius
If ever there was a misnomer 🙄 – it really would be unbelievable if this were fiction. I haven’t yet finished reading this – but it is confirmation of all the worst fears about life inside the White House.
Democracy Is Great…
…but flawed! After writing my previous post I had a bit of a “lightbulb moment” regarding the democratic system. I am not saying for one minute that I have in any way solved the problem – but perhaps my lightbulb will shed a little luminance on it.
More Than Politics
Its almost a year since my last post – and slightly strange that the trigger should be (nearly) the same. There have been a number of things that, perhaps, could have been written about in that time – maybe a few that should have been – but my thoughts never got written down. This does not mean that there is only one thread going through my mind these days – although the fact that the previous post was on a very similar topic may make it look like that.