Of course it does – I hear you all say. Of course, I agree. However there are some nuances to explore and – more specifically, some examples of where truth seems to have no place in the conversations. Strangely it is almost exactly a year (took so long to do this one that it is now 5 years!) since I wrote Face It – You Don’t Know which in some ways explored the same topic – but from a slightly different viewpoint.
Decision Making
Its How You Say It
I was surprised that looking back in my blog this subject doesn’t seem to have cropped up before – even though it is definitely something that I have – over the years – given some thought to. So now we will rectify that a bit.
Need to Clarify/Update my Thinking on This
The previous post on unreachable tracks put forward some thoughts on a diagram. Since posting that I have had a significant change of mind in terms of the ‘accuracy’ of the diagram.
Are Some Tracks Forever Out Of Reach
This post is a sort of follow on to The Train Of Life (if anything) from some time ago. It was triggered yesterday by seeing a figure that seemingly was first tweeted back in 2021, but which was new to me.
A Case In Point
A prime example of the sort of thing I was talking about in my two previous posts is the upcoming vote in the House of Commons regarding assisted dying. In fact, not only will many be uninformed about all of the things that impact this topic, I would also argue that much of the discussion actually is centered around things which are not just unknown, but unknowable.
Serendipitous Insight About Scouts
I have many times lauded the power of serendipity and yesterday it struck once again. Having written what I did yesterday morning about uninformed decisions I received a link in an email to a TED talk which was right on point about part of my thesis.
Making Uninformed Decisions
As someone who has spent many years working and researching the field of decision making I know that the process is often flawed, usually lacking all the necessary information and almost always subjective rather than objective. My experience also suggests that most decision makers are unaware of just how uninformed they are about the issues surrounding their decisions. So welcome again to the Dunning Kruger effect😉.
What Is My Favourite ….
It is a question often asked – what is your favourite music; what is your favourite restaurant; what is your favourite book? The list is if not endless then very long. I don’t know about other people, but for me it is always a question that elicits an answer that is – at best – evasive. The problem, for me, is that all the topics on which one might be asked “your favourite” are extremely subjective and it is, again for me, nigh on impossible to come up with a definitive answer.
Wise Paraphrase
Perhaps an unsurprising source for something like this, but sometimes it is necessary to skip the political correctness and say exactly what you mean. I am sure that I have at least mentioned Dunning-Kruger before – the problem with something like that is that it seems like high falutin’ mumbo jumbo to the ears of many people – so perhaps it is better coming from the mouth of John Cleese.
Oh Dear – Just When I Thought Some Were Getting It!
In these days when so many are focussing on “the model” it is throwing up lots of insight into what people understand – and do not understand – about modelling and specifically models used for forecasting. Whilst much of the coverage has been OK both the media and the “experts” (not experts in modelling I should add for clarity) are often guilty of misrepresentation (to put it kindly!)