It is clear that not everything you read online is going to be correct – indeed often it is wise to consider the possibility that nothing you read online is correct. 😀 (and yes – I do appreciate the irony of writing that in a blog post) However, sometimes you come across something that- whilst seeming to be sensible – triggers thoughts about things that are (perhaps) wrong in the real world rather than in the online world.
I saw this posted on LinkedIn – I can only think that the writer was trolling, because he then went on to make a suggestion that (in my humble opinion!!) illustrated that he was in great danger of falling into this category himself. Oh the irony!!
Really this should not be a surprise – it seems to me there are two (very common) cognitive pitfalls at work here – the tendency to over estimate our own skill when our knowledge is limited and the tendency to compare ourself with a small subset of the population (with which we are relatively familiar) rather than the population as a whole.
The writer will probably have reached his “opinion” based on observing his “close” circles – those people that are in his groups of friends/colleagues/acquaintances and so on. This has given him the confidence to believe that – because he perceives himself to be ‘superior’ to them – his ideas are therefore ‘right’.
I share the sentiments that he expresses – it is indeed true that many, many people simply seem to lack the ability to work out what is best for them. Where I (think I) differ from the writer is that I am far from sure that I am truly any better!!
It has little to do with arrogance. In a seminal paper published in 1999, Kruger and Dunning argued that :
In this context it is important to stress that this is not a criticism of the individual as a person – merely a comment on their ‘competence’ when considering a particular skill/knowledge area. Thus even the best will have areas of incompetence – and, perhaps, they will be particularly prone to overestimate their own skill in those areas where they are – in fact – relatively incompetent.
The title of this blog attests to the fact that I recognise my own incompetence in so many things. This sometimes results in a reluctance to put forward an idea that I ‘think’ is original – simply because I find it difficult to believe that I am the first person to have had it. It should, really, suppress the blog altogether – however, I avoid adopting that approach by telling myself that what I am using the blog for is to further my own thinking – I am not claiming that it is better than anyone else’s – it is simply what my own thoughts are – and the reader can take that at face value.
Going back to the quote – I can’t remember how much (if at all) I have addressed this in previous entries to the blog, but this is part of the reason that I worry about our system of democracy. The principle of “one man one vote” is an admirable one – however I think that there are, perhaps, some things that do not lend themselves to “populist” decision making. Far too often the “popular” choice is short term, or chosen through ignorance.
This is no criticism of those who are voting – no – it is a recognition that for many things “its just too difficult”!!
The author of the quote above went on to give a ‘possible’ solution for the “Syrian Situation”. Goodness – does ANYONE know all of the relevant factors at work here? The situation is phenomenally complex – it isn’t possible to address the humanitarian crisis unless the root causes are identified. Crucially it can be easily seen that there is no ‘simple’ answer – whatever course of action is chosen will require a significant amount of cooperation between people, bodies, governments (and so on) who are not usually known for a high level of “seeing eye to eye”!!
That factor on its own will result in a cascade of “knock-on” effects that will not be foreseen – unintended consequences. It has been said that the chief cause of problems is solutions. Certainly it does not require much digging to see that the refugee situation that is engulfing europe at the moment is – at least partially – caused by ‘solutions’ to previous ‘problems’ in the Middle East.
However, this is not a blog entry on the whys and wherefores of the refugee situation – my focus is rather on the fact that I believe that there are things that we should not have a say on.
Interestingly – I have just written – and deleted – a number of paragraphs outlining my thoughts on “real democracy” – why did I delete it – well because I am sure that I am ‘relatively’ ignorant of the working of politics….
The Scottish referendum and the upcoming in/out vote on the european union are two things where I feel terribly ill-equipped to make an informed choice. I therefore think – if I am ill-equipped – how many people are there who CAN make an informed choice? Come the day, my vote on the europe question will be based on “gut-feel” and I sort of think that the question is actually too profound to leave it to chance like that!
I am all in favour of our government making sure that it represents our views – but I am more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of handing over the decision making to “the people”.
Part of this stems from the way we perceive our vote – we go along to the polling station – part of ‘the crowd’ – put our “X” in the chosen place on the ballot paper – post it in the box with all the others – then watch the TV several hours later as the results are announced. We have played our part in the democratic process.
What if we change that point of view – we go along to the polling station and EVERYONE else has already voted – all 40,000,000 of them. Up on the wall is the current tally 20m Yes votes and 20m No votes. Your vote is going to win the day!!! Are you sufficiently confident in your knowledge and decision to say that 20m people are wrong? (note that it doesn’t matter here whether you vote yes or no – either way you are saying 20m people are wrong!!
Its possible that at that point you might decide to spoil your ballot paper!! The consequences of the ‘wrong’ decision in this is probably going to be considerable.
There is a big difference between using a referendum, or similar process, to find out the opinion of the polled group and using it to make a decision. Perhaps the only time that the latter is ‘suitable’ is where the outcome is subjective and “doesn’t really matter”. Of course, where this hits problems is that the majority of people think that having a referendum is a “good thing” and gives them the chance to “matter”.
One thing has been proven time and time again – when a huge majority think one thing and just a few think the opposite – it is not always the huge majority who are correct!! Think “flat earth” for instance. The ‘accepted’ correct way of thinking about things has been shown to be, in fact, incorrect over and over again. So – not only is there uncertainty in predicting what WILL happen, there is uncertainty about what HAS happened – and, I guess what IS happening!!
Uncertainty can be a separate topic – but until you eradicate it then sometimes you must simply admit to “not knowing” whether A or not A is the correct answer.
When the referendum about the EU happens I will in all probability vote – certain (!!!!) in the knowledge that I am RIGHT.