Systems Thinking

On Observing Reality

Reality TV shows are anything but.  They are sold to you as good viewing because, unlike soaps or crime series etc., you are seeing “real life” unfold in front of your eyes.  However, if it really were real life (and there have been some so-called “slow TV” shows made that could claim that) then the vast majority of the programme would be dull and unwatchable (always assuming that any show of this genre can claim otherwise. 😀

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Face It – You Don’t Know

I am no expert, but I suspect that those that control the press (these days I guess it should be “the media” to be more inclusive) have always been viewed with a certain amount of suspicion by some elements of the populace – for all sorts of different reasons. This, of course, has come to a head in a big way in modern day USA where the “fake news media” are regularly blamed for many things.

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Thickening Up Facebook

Its a common complaint and a justified one in my opinion that Facebook has too much “junk” and not enough content. I have been challenged over recent days over what I could do about that and this is my first attempt at formulating those thoughts.

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Oh Dear – Just When I Thought Some Were Getting It!

In these days when so many are focussing on “the model” it is throwing up lots of insight into what people understand – and do not understand – about modelling and specifically models used for forecasting. Whilst much of the coverage has been OK both the media and the “experts” (not experts in modelling I should add for clarity) are often guilty of misrepresentation (to put it kindly!)

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A Modeller on Modelling

My previous post was a little bit away from the norm in that it really did draw on my knowledge and experience more than it tried to expand it.  I am going to do that again – because “models” are seemingly all the rage and, to be honest, I am seeing so much that is familiar from my days using (and justifying) models at work that is being reflected in the current situation.

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Recognition Comes Too Late

One thing that I used to dread when I was working was someone asking me “what do you do at work then”?  I suspect that I must have written about this somewhere, but the answer “I do modelling” is perhaps the most accurate and yet least informative one that I could give.  Suddenly “modelling” is becoming quite the in-thing.

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This Time It Wasn’t a Butterfly

Its Chaos Theory time.  No – not when everything goes awry – although given the situation in the world today that could well be true(-ish).  I’m talking about the mathematical version of chaos – small changes in initial conditions make huge differences in outcomes – another subject that I have talked about often.  Its most ‘famous’ instantiation is perhaps Lorenz’s “Butterfly Effect” – but as the title says we cannot blame the butterfly this time – or perhaps, more correctly, it is likely that no butterfly was involved – we cannot be sure.

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More Than Politics

Its almost a year since my last post – and slightly strange that the trigger should be (nearly) the same. There have been a number of things that, perhaps, could have been written about in that time – maybe a few that should have been – but my thoughts never got written down.  This does not mean that there is only one thread going through my mind these days – although the fact that the previous post was on a very similar topic may make it look like that.

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Feeding my Ignorance