It was Neils Bohr who first said that, and it is something which we all often fail to remember. This is the first of two blogs (probably in quick succession) triggered by a TV programme that I watched this evening.
The series by Professor Marcus du Sautoy The Code finished this week. I’ll discuss some thoughts about the series as a whole in the second blog post, but I want to just jot down a few thoughts on some specific bits of part 3 first of all.
First, something that I have noted previously elsewhere – it is really great when someone ‘famous’ copies your ideas! Well, perhaps not exactly copies, but in this programme the difficulties of predicting what are, essentially, chaotic situations was illustrated in exactly the same way as I had done in a presentation earlier this year.
Of course, we are always drawn to those who have worldviews that are similar to our own – and in a future post I am sure that I will talk about our mental models and how we view the world and the effect that can have on our lives and others. So, when a TV programme is (for the most part) echoing your worldview then you will find it much easier to watch than those that grate with your view.
Perhaps that explains why something like comedy so divides people – one man’s “laugh out loud” joke leaves another absolutely cold. Again, perhaps a topic for the future.
The specific thing that drew me to the programme this evening was the fact that earlier today, whilst out for a run, I was pondering on how our lives are changed significantly by seemingly minor events/occurrences – and of course this was illustrated in the programme primarily by the “pooh-sticks” races. We all go through life and make decision after decision – are buffeted by the events happening around us – are steered by the decisions and choices of our friends – and it all leads to the end point where we are now. If just one of those had been slightly different our trajectory through life would have taken us to a completely different place.
What is perhaps most scary is that many of those decisions are made on the basis of our “guesses” about what someone else is thinking or feeling. We cannot get inside the head of our friends. Even our closest friends will be a mystery to us – I know that no one knows all of me! Yet we are often in situations where we choose to, or are forced to, act as if we were sure what the reaction of the other party will be.
Looking back I can see many times when I have chosen A instead of B solely on the basis that another person would prefer that to be the outcome. How did I know? Well, truth be told I didn’t – truth be told I was probably wrong more often than I was right!! However, I persisted (and still do persist) in assuming that I am able to predict the behaviour of other people.
I can think of many occasions where I have interpreted the actions of others to be indicative of a particular attitude – to me; to a situation; to a desired outcome. Unfortunately, those predictions will only be right insofar as the other person conforms to my own worldview (or worse, to my view of their worldview!!) and, as shown in the examples of the impact of chaos, even a tiny mistake in that reading of the other people can have dramatic impacts.
I would like to think that I am sensitive to the needs of others and so will be better than some at looking out for others – I have (somewhat to my own surprise) recently gained a reputation for good diplomacy in difficult interpersonal situations, so maybe, just maybe that confirms that this is a skill that can be improved.
Regardless of how well or badly I am doing – I would be well advised to keep in sight the fact that the rules of chaos means that – with the best will in the world – we cannot be sure of our predictions of the behaviour of other people.